Session 7 by Vanice

Develop ideas of where you could incorporate the use of Scenario planning in your organization. Upload to Group Blog.

Scenario Planning Example 1

My workplace has a company library but the facilities are not good enough to cater the user need. As I mention before, this company library is handled by other department before and we have checked the library facilities when we take responsible to handle it. As the library established for long time ago, thus it facility do not cater the need of our users now. And we have decided to improve the library facility and scenario planning can used to analysis different method of library facility improvement.

Scenario Planning

There are six stages in scenario planning which are below:

 

Find the Right Issue:

Library facility cannot cater the user’s need

Locate the Driving Forces:

User would like to view the e learning materials at the library

The new branch would like to take this change to improve the library service quality

Rate the Forces:

Mainly driven by the user as they would have benefit if the library facility is upgraded

Create Scenarios:

Move the library to new place with lan port

Arrange tele-company to install lan port at the library

Discuss Implications:

For scenario 1, staff would be able to view e-materials in the library if we can find a new location with network access. As my company has an outline agreement with logistic company, my branch does not need to use our budgets to arrange staffs to move the library materials. The cost would be much lower than scenario 2.

For scenario 2, staff would also able to view e-materials in the library if we can arrange installation of lan port. However, the process to obtain funding could be time consuming. Management may also expect us to use existing resources to solve the problem instead of granting a new funding.

Develop Indicators:

To make scenario 1 come true, we need to search for a new library location with network access. If a location is decided, we need to present our ideas to the management and convenience them the new location would be a better location for the company library. We also need to arrange staffs to move in and out of the library materials from the old library to the new location.

To make scenario 2 come true, we have to present our ideas about improving the library facility to the management in order to obtain funding to stall lan port. Further, we need to decide where to install the lan port and arrange to tele-company to install it.

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Scenario Planning Example 2

Hong Kong has two power supply companies. One supplies electricity to Hong Kong Island where the other supplies electricity to Kowloon and New Territories and they monopolize the Hong Kong power supply market. Hong Kong government consulted the public about their opinions on introduction of new power suppliers on 2005 and finally decided not to introduce new suppliers at the present stage as further investigation is needed.

At the end of 2011, introduction of new power suppliers became a hot issue again as public concerned about the proposed electricity price increase rate.

Scenario Planning

Find the Right Issue:

Introduction of new electricity suppliers

Locate the Driving Forces:

Public concern about the fair market competition

Public concern about the electricity price

Rate the Forces:

Mainly driven by the electricity price.

Create Scenarios:

New suppliers build up power supply plant in Hong Kong

Open grid access to third parties

Discuss Implications:

For scenario 1, the possibilities for this happen would be low for the following reasons:

The cost would be very high in building new power plant and grid networks.

Difficult to find suitable site to built new power plant, such as need to consult with the government and public (process could be very time consuming and need to evaluate the impact to the environment).

The new power suppliers could have total control on the business if they can built up new power supply plant in Hong Kong as they do not need to rely on the power grid of her competitors.

For scenario 2, some of the countries introduce power supply market competition by developing shared power grid. If we have to share our power grid with third parties, some of our company sensitive information may need to share with third parties.

Develop Indicators:

For scenario 1, what we can do is to stay competitive with the new power suppliers by lowering the electricity price such as introduction of smart grid etc.

For scenario 2, we need to overcome the technical problem in opening the grid access and state the responsibility for supply planning with other power suppliers.

Reference: http://sbinformation.about.com/cs/newseconomy/a/scenario_2.htm